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User blog:Hurricane Layten/Another Category 5 on the way near Fiji and New Calidonia - how many more?!!...
'JTWC advisory' SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 169.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 169.9E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD, ALBEIT PERSISTENT, CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY A POINT SOURCE PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE AT 30 CELSIUS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING BEYOND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.// NNNN 'FIJI advisory' ZCZC 247 WTPS11 NFFN 110600 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 11/0800 UTC 2015 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 169.4E AT 110600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN N SEMI-CIRCLE, AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN S SEMI-CIRCLE. AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN S SEMI-CIRCLE. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE PATTERN, LLCC EMBD IN W, YEILDS DT=5.0, MET=5.0,PT=5.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING 5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARDS MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 12.1S 169.4E MOV AT 03KT WITH 95 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 13.3S 169.4E MOV AT 03KT WITH 110 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 14.8S 169.2E MOV AT 03KT WITH 110 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 16.7S 169.3E MOV AT 03KT WITH 115 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 111400 UTC. NNNN 'TC forecast The cyclone is expected to intensify into the 3rd category 5 tropical cyclone of 2015. for the forecast track, see http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html Category:Blog posts